Box-Office Benjamin$: Ice Age & Transformers Tie?

From a box-office analysis standpoint, I really wish all movies would open on a Friday, it would really make things a lot easier. But I digress. As the week prior, my box-office predictions were little off in last week’s edition of BOB. I’ll get it, don’t worry. Ice Age 3 and Public Enemies opened last Wednesday, July 1st in an effort to derail the box-office behemoth that is Transformers 2. It looks as though the prehistoric animated family comedy beat a lot of exceptions by coming in first…barely and technically.

Despite the well-known and unfair loathing of Michael Bays Sci-Fi-action epic, Transformers 2 held its own at the box-office, pulling in an impressive $42.5 million over the 4th of July weekend. Ice Age 3 held ITS own, by posting the exact same figure, $42.5 million over Friday, Saturday and Sunday. So that’s a tie, right? As I mentioned earlier, Ice Age 3 opened on Wednesday, so the true comparison of who actually won the day comes in comparing the Wednesday and Thursday grosses of last week. Transformers 2 pulled in $22.5 million on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing its 5-day total to $65 million. Ice Age 3 squeaked by its rival robots and contrasting audience demographic by taking in $25 million on Wednesday and Thursday, helping it to a 5-day best of $67.5 million.

Damn that’s close. So the eccentric squirrel and friends barely bested Megan Fox and Shia…BARELY! What’s somewhat disappointing, from a prediction and affectionate standpoint, is the performance by Johnny Depp’s Public Enemies, which inevitably came in third with a $26 million weekend/$41 million 5-day gross. I predicted that PE would bring in $48 over five days, which was pretty close, but I had the John Dillinger gangster flick coming in second, so I guess I’ll live to fight another day. What should be noted about all this is the epic, massive amount of money that the Transformers sequel is bringing in. In just over 10 days, the little film that could about the alien-robots has brought in a ridiculous $293 million domestically so far.

This weekend should be interesting as we’ll see just how much controversy and publicity can help a film’s success at the box-office. Yes, Bruno is finally here this Friday and it should prove to be much more successful than its predecessor. Borat made an impressive debut when it was released, bringing in a respectable $26.5 million on opening weekend, and ending with just over $128 million during its domestic run. Now, the reason why Bruno should be more successful is three reasons: 1) Sacha Baron Cohen and his shenanigans is much more well-known now and Borat did extremely well in DVD sales, so his fan-base has had nearly three years to grow. 2) Bruno is a much more controversial character as he is known for his outrageous sexual exploits, which will propel the inevitable word-of-mouth effect. 3) Sacha/Bruno has been promoting the shit out of this movie, appearing on pretty much every talk show in existence.

I predict that Bruno will be on top this weekend with $42 million. The parents will hit the theaters again, putting Ice Age 3 at a close second with $38 million. Transformers 2 will drop some and come in third with a respectable $32 million. Just to clarify, all of these projections are over THREE DAYS. Challenge?

Here’s a breakdown of the rest of the Top 5 at the Box-Office this THREE-DAY weekend.

CHAMP: TIE, Transformers 2 & Ice Age 3 $42.5 million
2) Public Enemies $26.1 million
4) The Proposal $12.7 million
5) The Hangover $10 million

Source: Box-Office Mojo

What Do You Think? Discuss.